What the Jalen Hurts Extension Means for the Eagles, NFL
Jalen Hurts is now the highest-paid player in NFL history after signing a five-year $255M extension with the Philadelphia Eagles. With $110M guaranteed at signing and just under $180M in total guarantees, Hurts is now officially Philadelphia’s QB1 for the foreseeable future. The contract also includes a no-trade clause, a first in Philadelphia Eagles and GM Howie Roseman’s history. Hurts improved vastly from 2021 to 2022 and ended this year's campaign as a leading MVP candidate until he missed games late in the season due to a shoulder injury. The season alone might have been enough to earn an extension this offseason but Hurts’ almost perfect performance against reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl LVII, all but guaranteed a payday for Hurts before the 2023 season.
The Eagles' future is secure at QB, and Eagles fans should be thrilled that a second-round pick has matured into a franchise player. Even more so, he was signed for just under $180M in guaranteed money, a fantastic and rational deal in my eyes considering the absurdity that has flooded the QB market in recent years, as seen by the Deshaun Watson and Kyler Murray contracts. In Houston, Watson had shown flashes of brilliance. He has a cannon of an arm and can move around the pocket gracefully and make plays with his legs. However, his character has been put in question after more than twenty women accused him of sexual assault. Despite this, the Cleveland Browns (who are far from the best-run franchise) traded for Watson and subsequently signed him to a $230M contract, fully guaranteed. This amount of guaranteed money for a QB with off-field legal issues and only one career playoff win? Absurd.
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray’s contract, while still absurd, doesn’t quite compare to the Watson situation. He signed for $160M guaranteed in 2021, months after getting blown out in the playoffs by the Rams on MNF. While his regular season production is quite good, Murray who stands at just 5'10 and weighs slightly over 200 pounds, tends to get beaten up over the course of a season. Perhaps this is why the Cardinals have had a historically bad record in December and January under Murray and former HC Kliff Kingsbury, who was fired after the 2022 season. The most interesting facet of Murray’s contract was that the team mandated him to spend a certain amount of hours watching film. Considering most QBs want to watch film to improve, it was odd that a player being paid over $40M a year, would need a minimum number of hours worked built into his contract. That certainly dinged both Murray’s character and the Cardinals' front-office reputation.
All of this to say, for the Eagles to sign an excellent player with even better character to an extension with $180M guaranteed is a fair and well-valued contract. After watching Hurts’ Super Bowl performance, Eagles fans should be confident about their future.
With that said, big QB contracts are an overall negative for championship-contending teams. Simply put, star QBs who are on rookie deals are like gold. When teams have MVP-caliber players for cheap, it leaves GMs with a lot of salary cap to work with. This not only allows teams to sign impact starters, but it allows teams to have greater depth, which is crucial when making a deep playoff run.
Looking back at ten years of data, the significance of having a properly paid QB can be seen, when matching Super Bowl-winning QBs and their salaries
As seen above, having a top-paid QB is not necessary to win championships, and even more, it can be a hindrance. There are a couple of different scenarios that are derived from the above chart:
A) The rookie deal- Such as Russell Wilson in 2013, Carson Wentz in 2017, and Patrick Mahomes in 2019. These teams were able to successfully draft QBs who were able to help their team win within their first four years in the league. Each franchise was able to use the cheap already-allotted contract to build a strong team full of positional superstars, to play alongside their young QB.
B) The veteran- Such as Tom Brady and Payton Manning. Two all-time greats that understood that taking less money meant giving their team a better chance of winning a Super Bowl. Brady especially was known to be a team player when it came to contract extensions. In 2018, when Brady was still dominant and the best QB in the league, he was surely worth more than $22M a year. However, Brady knew that giving Belichick more cap to work with meant increasing his odds come February. QBs like Dak Prescott or Aaron Rodgers, who we will examine in a moment, who took the most money possible, have seen their teams conquered year after year, at their own expense. Interestingly, when the Packers won SB XLV in 2010, Rodgers’ cap hit ranked 21st, further supporting the notion that cheap QBs help teams in the postseason.
C) Expensive, but still great- Here is where Patrick Mahomes of 2022 lies, and where Jalen Hurts will fall when his extension kicks in and his cap hit increases. Mahomes in 2022 was very expensive but his sheer greatness overcame any salary cap shortcomings. Further, a player of his caliber and character attracts other great players. Often these players are willing to take less money for a shot at a championship. Juju Smith-Schuster is an example of such a player who took less money as a free agent and is now a Super Bowl champion.
The Jalen Hurts seen in the Super Bowl will now need to be the Jalen Hurts that shows up every Sunday. Otherwise, his contract will not have been worth it. The Eagles’ “rookie deal” window will now be closing. They will enter a “superstar” period where Hurts will have to be great enough to overcome any positional shortcomings caused by his massive cap hit. It is likely that solid players like a №2 WR Devonta Smith will be offered more money elsewhere. Will Hurts be great enough to keep players in Philadelphia for less money?
Looking at Expected Points Added (EPA) throughout different seasons will allow us to get an idea of offensive and defensive production before and after big QB contracts. Let's look at the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers.
The Cowboys and Packers, two of the NFL’s premier franchises, signed QBs to big contacts in recent years. In 2021 Dak Prescott got an extension with $126M guaranteed months after a gruesome ankle fracture. Aaron Rodgers signed a three-year extension with the Packers last year with $150M guaranteed, a $50M yearly salary which the Jets will now take on if that deal ever closes.
Taking a look at the Dallas Cowboys, 2019 was one of their best offensive years in recent seasons. Prescott earned just over $2M in 2019. The following season in 2020, Prescott was placed under the franchise tag, entitling him to over $31M for the year, a precursor to his large extension. The 2020 season was a putrid year for America’s team both defensively and offensively. In 2020 Dallas lost key members such as pass rushers Michael Bennet and Robert Quinn along with solid offensive and special teams players Tayvon Austin and Randall Cobb. It is likely that Prescott’s 1400% increase in annual salary from 2019 to 2020 contributed to these roster losses.
Green Bay is harder to analyze simply due to the sheer talent Rodgers possesses. He is able to make plays no one else in the league is able to. His uncanny ability to flick the ball down the field allows him to make incredible off-platform throws. However, even the Packers and Rodgers suffered from the magnitude of his compensation. The chart clearly shows a dip in offensive EPA in 2021 and 2022 from 2020. Defensively, the Packers dipped from 2021 to 2022 as well. Perhaps the biggest losses to the team were All-Pro WR Davante Adams and pass rusher Za’Darius Smith. Adams got his big contract in Las Vegas and Minnesota paid Smith handsomely. Retaining both of these players would have been hard when Rodgers was in line to make $50M in 2022.
While much more than QB salary impacts EPA, such as coaching, it would be naive not to consider that losing impact players due to salary cap allocation impacts a team's ability to perform
The great thing about the Jalen Hurts deal is how it is structured. Unlike the contracts mentioned earlier which could prove detrimental to the team, Hurts’ deal is set up in a way to limit his cap hit for as long as possible. Here's the cap hit breakdown over the next couple of seasons.
2023- $6.15M
2024- $13.56M
2025-$21.77M
2026-$31.77M
By manipulating the cap, prorating money, and converting some of Hurts’ salary into signing bonuses, Roseman and the Eagles were able to keep Hurts’ cap hits relatively low. Not until after 2026 will his cap hit be massive and it is likely by then the salary cap will be significantly more than it is now, lowering the percentage that Hurts is allocated. Putting all of this into perspective, Hurts’ contract could avoid harming the team for at least a couple of years. For four years, Roseman will have the cap space he needs to maneuver contract negotiations and free agency successfully. All the while Hurts will be compensated fairly for the immense value he brings to his team and league.
While all NFL GMs know how to manipulate the salary cap, not every GM knows how to get a contract like this done- completed without drama and one that suits the player and the team. Arizona and Cleveland most certainly do not. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens (or wherever he is traded) are next in line to get a deal done. Reports say Jackson declined approximately $170M in guaranteed money. Is he worth more than Hurts who nearly led his franchise to a Super Bowl? The NFL QB market is booming and it is up to the GM and front office to make sure any contract does not hinder the team’s ability to successfully build a contending roster. As the numbers show, QBs who make less than the maximum market value tend to be the ones that lead their team to Super Bowls.
