The NFL’s Week 17 is now in the books, concluding the 2020 NFL regular season. Quite miraculously, while there were games played on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, there were no cancellations out of the 256 games scheduled for the 2020 season. With the completion of the season, here is who the first five picks of the 2021 draft belong to and who each team will strongly consider.
- Jacksonville Jaguars- QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
- New York Jets- QB Justin Fields (Ohio State) OR QB Zach Wilson (BYU)
- Miami Dolphins (Via Houston Texans)- WR Jamar Chase (LSU) OR QBs Fields/Wilson
- Atlanta Falcons- OT Penei Sewell (Oregon) OR QBs Fields/Wilson
- Cincinnati Bengals- WR Jalen Waddle (Alabama) OR OT Penei Sewell/Rashawn Slater (Northwestern)
Aside from pick №1 and Trevor Lawrence, things are wide open. Let's get into the breakdown.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars- QB Trevor Lawrence (Clemson)
Despite being outperformed in the 2021 CFB semifinal by Ohio State’s Justin Fields, QB Trevor Lawrence of Clemson is still the strong favorite to go №1 Overall. Lawrence, the most hyped QB to enter the draft since Andrew Luck in 2012, will have his work cut out for him. The 6'6, 220lb mobile gunslinger will take over a franchise that historically, has been in shambles. The Jags do have some talent at the skill positions and adding Lawrence should make Jacksonville a dynamic offense. Monday morning, the Jags fired HC Doug Marrone. Reportedly, Urban Mayer is interested in the position but nonetheless, simply having the №1 pick and with that assumingly Trevor Lawrence, makes the Jags job interesting.
2. New York Jets- QB Justin Fields (Ohio State) OR QB Zach Wilson (BYU)
After winning two of their last three games, the New York Jets missed out on the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. GM Joe Douglas now has two big decisions to make- who is head coach will be and what to do with the №2 pick. QB Sam Darnold made a strong case late in the season for the Jets to keep him for another year, and having a young QB is something Douglas and the future head coach will have to ponder. With this being said, here are a couple of directions the Jets can go.
- Most likely the Jets will draft a QB on April 29 and I think after a strong CFB semifinal against Clemson, QB Justin Fields is the favorite to go №2. However, QB Zach Wilson has also built a strong case for himself, and with Fields having blunders against Indiana and Northwestern, Wilson is a very viable option at №2. Again, this is the road for the Jets if they decide to move on from Sam Darnold. If this is the case, it is likely Darnold will be traded for a valuable draft pick, making taking a QB at №2 and then perhaps a skill guy with this other pick very intriguing.
- If Gang Green decides to go non-QB on draft night, OT Penei Sewell is probably the next best option, especially for Douglas, a GM that likes to build his teams from the trenches, outward. WR Jamar Chase is also an option but if Douglas finds himself in this position, it is likely the Jets trade down and get some value for their Trevor Lawrence-less №2 pick.
3. Miami Dolphins (Via Houston Texans)- WR Jamar Chase (LSU) OR QBs Fields/Wilson
Thanks to the 2019 Leremy Tunsil trade, Miami has the Texan's 2021 first round pick, among others. The GM at the time Bill O’Brien surely did not count on the Texans going 4–12 in 2020, making that pick the №3 overall in the 2021 draft. Miami certainly doesn't mind and they now have a major decision to make with the №3 pick. An underwhelming season from last year's №5 pick Tua Tagovailoa leaves the question of whether Miami will use the Arizona Cardinals strategy and replace their former Top 5 QB. After passing on star rookie QB Justin Herbert, Miami, along with Tua has to feel the pressure. If Miami does choose that path, they will certainly take whoever is left on the board between Fields and Wilson.
However, I find it likely that the Dolphins will not take a QB and give Tua another go. In that case, their top priority would be getting Tua some weapons, meaning with the №3 overall pick WR Jamar Chase would head to South Beach.
4. Atlanta Falcons- OT Penei Sewell (Oregon) OR QBs Fields/Wilson
The Falcons, after a weird and irrelevant season, find themselves drafting at №4. The biggest story here is what will happen with former MVP QB Matt Ryan. He carries a $40M dollar cap hit in 2021 and it seems as if a trade, while possible, is unlikely at this moment. The Falcons also have a head coaching situation to figure out. Raheem Morris will interview to permanently fill the job, after going 4–7 as the interim HC after Dan Quinn was fired. Whoever the coach is, they will need to decide if they want to invest the pick in a QB and have them learn behind Matt Ryan. If either Fields or Wilson is still available, this is a strong possibility. If not, I don't see the Falcons taking a WR with their first pick due to the fact that Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley already occupy the Atlanta WR room. This leaves Penei Sewell a likely option or perhaps a stud defensive player such as Patrick Surtain II (Alabama) or Micah Parsons (Penn State).
5. Cincinnati Bengals- OT Penei Sewell/Rashawn Slater (Northwestern) OR WR Jalen Waddle (Alabama)
Oh, the Bengals. After their franchise QB and former №1 overall pick, Joe Burrow suffered a devasting ACL injury, all eyes are on the Bengals to give Joey some protection. If the Bengals don't address the offensive line in the draft they will surely have to do so in free agency, most likely at a great cost. With that said, if Penei Sewell is still available, he is definitely the favorite to be in Cincinnati next year protecting Burrow. However, if Sewell is gone, Northwestern big man, considered the next best OL, Rashawn Slater, could be the pick. If this is the case, the Bengals could trade down, get more picks from a team that wants a QB, and still get a solid lineman for Burrow.
Another route the Bengals may take is to get Burrow some talent at the skill positions. If WR Jamar Chase is still available it could be him but if not, WR Jalen Waddle is widely considered just as talented and could become Burrows's new favorite option out wide.
Clearly, after the Jags, teams have some big decisions to make. For many teams, such as the Jets, Dolphins, and Falcons their pick will determine the direction of the future of their franchise. Fans have a lot to look forward to in late April of 2021. This draft is arguably the most open in years and there are sure to be some surprises come draft night.
